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Monthly Review - June 2026

In brief

Markets
Equity markets react positively to a Middle East conflict resolution.
Monetary policy
New Fed chair's focus on inflation sparks rate hike fears.
Technology
SpaceX market launch hits turbulence, with tech valuations in question.

The markets

June Calendar

-1.1%

S&P 500

-9.1%

HSI

2.8%

SET 50

0.9%

TOPIX

1.8%

CSI 300

2.6%

STI

-2.8%

Nasdaq

4.7%

PSEI

-7.9%

JCI

Source: Bloomberg 30.06.2026, returns in local currency


Top stories

Conflict resolution moves markets
Markets

Conflict resolution moves markets

A Memorandum of Understanding regarding an end to the Middle East conflict triggered a risk-on rally. The Strait of Hormuz, the crucial channel for 20% of global oil supply, was re-opened and oil prices fall back towards pre-conflict levels1. Equity markets across the world touched record highs, buoyed by the prospect of a check to inflation, as well as by hopes that AI investment would continue at pace2. Nonetheless, bouts of equity market volatility were triggered by tech sector newsflow3. While chipmaker Micron reported stellar results and huge demand growth, Apple announced product price hikes, due to the scarcity of these vital components4,5.

New regime at the Fed
Monetary policy

New regime at the Fed

Kevin Warsh gave his first press conference as chair of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), after interest rates were left unchanged. He promised to respond to inflationary pressures, following the recent oil price spike. Markets concluded that the next move in interest rates would likely be up, causing bond yields to rise, and bond prices to fall along with highly valued tech stocks. Warsh hinted that the Fed would “say less” in the future, prompting fears of market confusion and volatility spikes6. And the Fed’s ‘dotplot’ estimates of the future path of interest rates now look set to become a thing of the past.

A volatile lift off
Technology

A volatile lift off

The market launch of SpaceX, the rockets to AI group founded by Elon Musk, was met with massive demand from investors and index tracking funds. The market capitalisation soared towards $3 trillion, leapfrogging Amazon and briefly also Microsoft, and making Musk the first ever US dollar trillionaire7. The share price later fell back with a bump on concerns that higher fed fund rates could prompt lower tech sector valuations. Meanwhile, AI rival OpenAI filed for its own listing, at a value of around $1 trillion, although a delay until 2027 was later rumoured8.

Strong demand for China’s green IPO
Responsible investing

Strong demand for China’s green IPO

Hot on the heels of SpaceX’s record-breaking debut on the Nasdaq, China Resources New Energy Holdings (CR New Energy) is looking to raise US$3.6bn on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, in what is likely to be mainland China’s biggest IPO since 20229. The company produces electricity from solar and wind farms across China’s 31 administrative divisions. The deal has generated strong interest among retail investors, after a crackdown aimed at limiting Chinese citizen’s exposure to US markets coincided with the launch of the SpaceX IPO. The CR New Energy deal is already more than 680 times oversubscribed9.


On the radar

Illustration of an orange radar

The anniversary review of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade deal could raise concerns about regional economic stability , after suggestions from the US administration that the decades-old pact might not be renewed10.

After voters in Switzerland rejected capping the population at 10 million in a referendum, debate will likely be fuelled as to whether the Swiss model of direct democracy might serve as a template for countries dealing with similar issues11.

At the annual G7 Summit in France, leaders pledged to bolster Ukraine’s air defences and tighten sanctions on Moscow12. Despite reaffirmed support for Kyiv from the US, commentators are questioning whether this will be enough to bring the war to an end.

Source: BNP Paribas Asset Management, as at 30 June 2026

The company information mentioned (if any) is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation.

  • Source: Financial Times, as at 25 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 15 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 24 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 25 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 25 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 29 June 2026
  • Source: Irish Times, as at 16 June 2026
  • Source: Reuters, as at 26 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 23 June 2026
  • Source: Financial Times, as at 23 June 2026
  • Source: NY Times, as at 10 June 2026
  • Source: BBC, as at 15 June 2026
  • Source: Aljazeera, as at 17 June 2026
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